Michael Stuermer - Putin and the Rise of Russia

The author is indebted to many people who have, through their ideas, expertise and advice, contributed to the concept of this book. First and foremost I wish to thank Ms Katja Machotina from St Petersburg, Russia and Munich, Germany who has given me invaluable help and advice, asking questions and providing answers, and checking much of the detail.

Many diplomats, active and retired, have given advice, some have provided information and also source material otherwise difficult to obtain. Among them the late Dr Otto von der Gablenz, Dr Ernst-Georg von Studnitz, Dr Hans von Ploetz, Dr Michael Libal, Dr Hermann Freiherr von Richthofen, Dr Eberhard von Puttkamer, and last but not least Dr Hans-Georg Wieck who, as the head of Bundesnachrichtendienst in Pullach, was my neighbour in Ebenhausen while I was director of Stiftung Wissenschaft and Politik. I should also like to acknowledge the help received from Russia’s ambassador to Berlin Wladimir Kotenew. I recall many conversations with the Italian ambassador to Berlin Antonio Puri Purini. Ambassador (ret.) Robert Blackwill (ex NSC), Washington and now with the RAND-Corporation Santa Monica, with General (ret.) Klaus Naumann, with Professor Lothar Ruehl, State Secretary MoD (ret.), Bonn, with the Finnish Ambassador to Berlin René Nyberg, and also with John Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany and now with Lazard Frères.

Dr Regina von Flemming has given me many insights on what it means to do business in Russia, as has Dr Axel Lebahn, formerly of Deutsche Bank, Göttingen.

Dr Alexander Rahr, DGAP, Berlin, has contributed much expertise on personalities and problems. Professor Sergei Karaganow, Moscow, has opened many doors for me. Dmitri Trenin, Carnegie Endowment, Moscow, has been a constant source of inspiration, and likewise Harvard Professor Marshall Goldman. Important advice on financial matters was given by Kurt Viermetz, Chairman of the Overseeing Board, Deutsche Borse AG, Frankfurt. Dr Gerhard Saoebathil, a Eurocrat of the best kind, formerly in Berlin and now Brussels, has contributed his vast experience on EU-Russian relations.

Dmitry Tulchinsky, RIA Novosty, Berlin, has been helpful in arranging various excursions to Russia. Dr Klaus Joachim Herrmann, Neues Deutschland, Berlin, has helped with some of the pictures.

Of course, the economic aspects of Russia’s standing in the global market place are of crucial importance, and I wish to thank, among others, Dr Klaus Mangold and Dr Oliver Wieck from Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft, Berlin. Prof. Dr Klaus-Ewald Holst, CEO, Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG) Leipzig, has provided many insights into the working of the energy industry.

I have also profited immensely from conversations with Russian experts such as Lilia Shevtsova, Carnegie Endowment, Moscow; Vladimir Ryshkow, Member of Duma; Vyacheslav Nikonov, Editor in Chief of Strategija Rossii, Moscow; Alexei Arbatov, Member of Duma, Moscow.

I would also like to acknowledge the insights provided over many years by friends like Ivar Tangen, Secretary General, The Norwegian Energy Foundation, Oslo; Dr Ulrich Schlie, MoD, Berlin; and last but by no means least, Dr Peter Scholl-Latour, Berlin and Paris.

Finally I feel very much indebted to the late George F. Kennan who, while at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton many years ago, through conversation and writing, gave me many insights into the historical forces at work inside the Soviet Union and Russia.

While I thank all of those who have accompanied, wittingly or unwittingly, the writing of this book over many years, the responsibility for what I offer the reader in terms of information and judgement is, of course, entirely mine.

7 October 1952:Putin born in Leningrad, growing up in rough neighbourhood

1953:Stalin dies

1973/74:first oil price hike

1975:Putin graduates at Law Department of Leningrad State University (while also working for the Leningrad Directorate of KGB)

1975:Helsinki Final Act

1978/79:second oil price hike, crisis thoughout the West

July 1982:in Lebanon war Israeli Air Force shoots down 70 Syrian MIGS, shock in Moscow

1982/83:Juri Andropov Kremlin Chief

1985:oil price breaks down, a boost for the West, catastrophe for Russia

1986:Chernobyl burnout, Gorbachev demands perestroika and glasnost

1987:sweeping arms control agreements between USSR and USA (INF Treaty)

9 November 1989:fall of Berlin Wall

1990:‘Two plus Four’ negotiations, NATO offers ‘brotherly hand’, German unification: Putin adviser to Mayor Anatoli Sobchak on international affairs after KGB work in Dresden, DDR from 1985

June 1991-96:Putin head of administration of St Petersburg Mayor’s Office

June 1996-March 1997:Putin joins Russian presidential administration, deputy to chief of Main Control Directorate, Presidential Property Management Department

1998:Putin appointed deputy chief of presidential administration

1998/99:Putin head of FSB

Summer 1998:financial crisis in Russia, oil at USD 10

August 1998:financial collapse and default

September 1998:Yeltsin appoints Evgeny Primakov prime minister

1999:NATO widening includes ex-Warsaw Pact countries

Spring 1999:tense political situation in Russia. Kremlin loses control over events

1999:Putin appointed Secretary of the Security Council

August 1999:Chechen fighters headed by Shamil Basayev invade Northern Republic of Daghestan

August 1999:Duma confirms appointment of Putin as Premier

September 1999:second Chechen War starts

31 December 1999:Yeltsin nominates Putin his successor

March 2000:Putin elected President of Russia

August 2000:Submarine Kursk lost at sea, crisis of Putin’s leadership

November 2000:clampdown on independent media

March 2001:Sergei Ivanov appointed defence minister

Spring 2001:proclamation of ‘managed democracy’, aka ‘sovereign democracy’

June 2001:creation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)

Fall 2001:Russia cooperates with US in war against Taliban in Afghanistan

December 2001: United States withdraws from ABM Treaty

October 2002:terrorist action at Dubrovka theatre in Moscow. Rescue attempt by federal forces leaves 120 dead

November 2002:EU-Russia summit in Brussels

March 2003:second Iraq War