Christopher Nuttall - The Fall of Night

Nor is this is only success. Russia’s brief war with Georgia in 2008 demonstrated, quite nicely, that Russia could act as it wished along its borders and outside powers (specifically the United States) couldn't act to prevent it. In addition, Putin has built economic ties with European powers (mainly Germany) that create economic incentives to support Russia and abandon Eastern Europe. Indeed, despite constant civil unrest, it is unlikely that the Ukraine and Belorussia (the latter run by a dictator) will manage to slip out of the Russian shadow, while NATO membership does not protect the Baltic States from Russian interference.

In fact, Russian influence has reached quite alarming levels. Russian agents have been caught spying in America and Europe, Russian operatives murdered a former Russian officer in London — Alexander Litvinenko — and may well have been involved in the death of Anna Politkovskaya. European and American businessmen who invest in Russia have often found themselves economically raped by Russian bureaucrats (the government is often a large part of the problem) and anti-Russian parties outside Russia have been harassed by Russian spies.

And, in Russia itself, those who oppose Putin find themselves in deep trouble. This is often petty — witness the treatment of Pussy Riot, a punk rock band — but has a numbing effect on free discourse. The shadows of oppression are falling over Russia once again.

In short, we are faced with a Russia that is growing more and more assertive… and confronted with an increasingly weak and divided Europe, one that is growing apart from America. Will there come a time, I might ask, when the military balance will fall towards the Russian side to the point where Russia’s leaders will consider a military invasion of Europe?

But invasions are so passé nowadays, aren't they?

The world can change. It can, in fact, change at terrifying speed. And when it does, we have to be ready.

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