Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

At OMCOM, Admiral John Randall reviewed the BDA reports, pleased that Roosevelt had finally broken through to do some real damage. The presence of that ship alone, with its ability to strike the enemy from well beyond the range of their own missiles, was decisive. And the strikes were potent enough to wear down the defense and then sink ships. The US was following the simple maximum of warfare at sea, strike first, and do so with good effectiveness.

Yet the main body of the enemy fleet had not been engaged. The single carrier had been picking off flanking task forces, sending one home to Aden, and destroying the other. Now that main body was stubbornly holding to a course that would take it to Salaha Harbor, the big port the US has selected for the delivery of the 1st Marine Division. With the battle going well, those troops were already on the water again, and heading towards Oman.

The airfield north of that port had ten good fighters, including those Strike Raptors, but it was just 45 miles north of the harbor. That meant the enemy fleet would have it within its SAM envelope if it hove too off Salaha, which is what the Admiral now divined as the Chinese intention. It would make operations at that base difficult, for unless the inherent stealth of the fighters allowed them to remain unseen, they would be in SAM range the moment they took off. There were also more vulnerable support assets there, an E-3 Sentry, two Poseidons and a pair of KC-135 Stratotankers. There were even a couple of MC-130 Combat Talons, with a company of Army Rangers. Those would all be definitely spotted and attacked the moment they took off, so it was time to be elsewhere.

The next operational field in Oman was Masirah, on a small island just off the coast, about 325 miles to the northeast. He could order all assets at Thumrait to move there, and decided that should happen for the support planes immediately. There were also five ships in the port itself that were given orders to slip out of the harbor that night, and head north. With the enemy fleet just a little over 200 miles to the south, they were already at risk.

So at 21:00, Littoral Combat Ships Recon and Scout were escorting the cargo carrier Ocean Trader , light amphibious ship Swift, and PC Sea Hunter. The Strike Raptors had landed and the air crews were hastening to get those weapons bays reloaded. If the enemy was headed their way, they’d have something to say about it in the morning.

All this meant one thing—unless that main body was decisively defeated, and driven off before it could reach Salaha, that port was off the list for the Marines. They would have to go to Muscat, which is why the Admiral reasoned Roosevelt had hit that eastern enemy TF, to open that sea lane.

Seeing what it took to kill that TF, taking on another 28 ships in the main fleet was a daunting prospect. What they really needed now was a second carrier, and the only prospect at hand was the Independence , which was now just off the northern tip of Sumatra, some 2100 miles from the present position of Roosevelt . Even at the brisk clip of 32 knots, that was 35 hours away. So the Big Stick has to carry the weight for another day and a half, he thought. Time for the British to step up their game.

Admiral Wells was thinking the same thing aboard HMS Prince of Wales . The day had been uneventful, a blessing after the harrowing battle he had endured earlier. His carriers had been flying recon, CAP and escort missions, but no strikes. Now he informed Captain Simpson that he had a full squadron of 12 F-35’s mounted with the new SPEAR munition.

When the war came, Brimstone was seen to be all but useless as a standoff attack weapon, with only a 37 mile range. That was close, and well inside the 80 mile range of the Chinese HQ-9 SAM’s. So SPEAR was developed as the next generation standoff weapon, with a much better range of 80 nautical miles. Even if seen on enemy radars, the delivering planes could release, turn, and withdraw outside of SAM range easily enough, but it had one problem.

Like Brimstone, it had a small 8Kg warhead, so it lacked real punch against large surface combatants, and needed multiple hits to do damage. By comparison, the American GBU-53 had six times the hitting power, with a 48Kg penetrating warhead. The US considered that bomb a light strike munition, and SPEAR was a real featherweight, but at least it was something. Without it the British F-35’s really had no standoff attack capability, and could only drop short range bombs. Clearly no one in Whitehall or Whale Island seemed to take the possibility of a war like this as likely, because they were woefully unprepared for it when it came.

There is an old saying: if you want peace, prepare for war. The militaries on all sides futzed about, building ships and planes, seeing them retire and be replaced by new ones, and many never fired a shot in anger. No one really knew what a modern war would be like, or how their weapons might perform in actual combat. During the Falkland’s War, the British had to ask the US for stocks of Sidewinder missiles to survive. Here they were begging them for the Enhanced Sea Sparrows to save their frigates, because the Sea Ceptor could not catch or kill missiles that could travel at 1900 knots as they attacked. The British knew those enemy missiles were out there, but no one had ever seen them in action, so they deployed Sea Ceptor anyway. Now they paid the price.

What the Chinese had done was to look at the cards being held by their potential enemies, and then trump them with the weapons they would deploy. Until the US began to retool Tomahawks to make the MMT’s, the longest range surface warfare missile the West had was the Harpoon or Exocet at 75 to 100 miles in range. Strangely, even the new Naval Strike Missile could only reach out 100 miles. China decided it could fight in a circle between 200 and 400 miles out, and it proved that when engaging and clearly defeating the Royal Navy as it was configured before the war.

Here, the story was completely different. The US big deck carrier was unhinging all Admiral Sun Wei’s plans, and he had no means of adequately countering it. The bulk of his power resided in those deadly YJ-18’s with a 290 mile range, and Captain Simpson would never allow his carrier to sail inside that range. So Sun Wei had no more than 100 cruise missiles that could reach the carrier, the YJ-100’s, but they would not be enough to break through the concentric circles of defense around that target. The big deck carrier was again proving that it was the master of this battlefield, attacking with impunity, while remaining largely invulnerable to counterattack. The Dragon fire was hot for those it could catch, but the Eagle soared high above, ruling the skies, and it was utterly fearless.

Just before dawn on the 2nd of December, the pilots were getting their briefing. When ordered, the British planes would form up and fly with the Americans, or rather just behind them, so that both planes could time their weapons release simultaneously. Another big attack was in the offing. By 05:30, the Chinese Fleet was about 80 miles south of Salaha Harbor, and six Strike Raptors were again ready at Thumrait, each carrying 24 GBU-53’s. Those would be added to the two F-35 squadrons, another 24 planes each carrying eight GBU-53’s. Together those 30 aircraft could put 336 bombs in the sky, coming from both the north and south in a terrible pincer of flying steel and explosives.

Given that kind of saturation, Admiral Wells had every confidence his boys were going to start getting some payback for the pounding they had taken from the Chinese YJ-18’s. Ships were going to be hit today, he thought, and they were going to die.