Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

Start with mines, all through the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman. Add in the ever present swift boat nuisance. Those won’t bother a US destroyer, but they will chill the spine of a commercial tanker Ship Master. I’ve already modeled Iranian operations with their Ghadir class mini subs. They are a harassment, but don’t last long. Shore based SSM batteries will also have to be considered if things continue to heat up.

Expect a cyber war too, with power grids being key targets, including those that run all those refineries over there. That will go both ways, with the US military prepared to launch a blistering cyberattack code named “Nitro Zeus.” I’d bet on the US in that realm.

Then come jihadi attacks against soft targets in the Gulf States friendly to the US, or in Israel. Think car bombs, drone attacks, IED’s, and shooting incidents like we suffer here in the US on a monthly basis. Face it, when people have guns, they end up using them, and so will Iran.

As in this story, it will either take stealth fighters to get in and start taking down Iran’s air defense systems, or it will take bombers with standoff missiles. But something always remains hidden, and we saw the Iranians use their ballistic missiles in both the 2021 scenario and here in 2025. Right now, they have avoided hitting the refineries and oil terminals, but if they realize they can never control them in the 2025 war, all bets are off. So we will see a lot of this play out in the series books ahead.

In our own history, this level of escalation will have some pretty grave consequences, but let’s remember that this was a path chosen by the current administration three years ago when the US pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran. That country was in complete compliance with the agreement, as verified monthly by independent inspection teams. Then the treaty was torn up, and heavy sanctions put in its place. We had years of relative stability before that happened, now look at what’s in front of us with these dramatic escalations over the last several months.

This new flashpoint sparks off after the big setback in Syria that saw us abandon the Kurds because of a desire to extricate ourselves from endless wars in the Middle East. Ironically, the troops are now flowing into the region in much greater numbers, and facing the prospect of a greater war that would dwarf the actions in Syria. The reason given for the killing of Soleimani was that he was planning more attacks against US assets in the region, but the law of “blow back” will now assure that we get those attacks in droves. These are the “unintended consequences” of this chest thumping between the US and Iran, and they will be nothing but bad, for both sides.

In this story, we are about to see how all of this might play out, a war involving Iraq and Iran in the most volatile region of the world. While that fight would be a mismatch in the naval / air arena, on the ground, throughout that entire region, Iran’s ability to conduct ongoing “asymmetric” warfare would never end. Nor will we ever invade Iran to defeat its conventional military. If you thought ten years of fighting in Iraq was a waste of lives and treasure, a war in Iran would be much worse.

It isn’t likely to happen, so all this escalation does is further destabilize an already fragile and vital region of the world, which presently maintains 50% of global oil production. You think gas prices are high now? You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet if this thing blows up. Iran’s ability to put harm on our regional allies and partner states in the Middle East cannot be underestimated, and this could go on and on and on….

Old Indian saying: ‘If you keep heading in the direction you are going, you just might get there.’ The direction we are heading in the Middle East is, to say the least, quite dangerous. Yet when has it ever been otherwise? If left alone, our enemies there would have continued to expand their terror and mayhem throughout the region. Someone has to present a countervailing power to check Iran’s dark ambitions, and that someone had been the United States, under four different Administrations. Things just never seem to get better over there, but after this stunning strategic blow with the assassination of Soleimani, I wonder what the House of Saud is thinking about it now?

The shock of Karpov’s collapse on the bridge lay heavily on the ship and crew, though few really understood the gravity of what had happened to him. How do you mourn and grieve the loss of your own self?

Karpov could feel it, know it, just as you would surely feel and know the loss of an arm or leg. The pain he felt was as much physical as it was emotional, and the look of anguish on his face shocked Fedorov as he leaned over the table where the Admiral lay. As Doctor Zolkin tried to examine his eyes, Karpov’s outstretched arm found Fedorov’s, reaching like a drowning man for anything he could hold on to at that moment. It was as if a great yawning chasm was opening beneath him, and Karpov could feel the sucking roar of a mighty wind.

The pain and misery he felt was the onrushing flood tide of memories all seeking refuge in his mind when that DF-11A found the Siberian that hour. He saw all that had happened to his Brother Self, from that first shocking moment when the two men first encountered one another at Murmansk, through the years of WWII, where the Siberian fought, to secure and preserve the fate of his Free Siberian State.

Whenever Karpov was at sea aboard Kirov , his brother ruled the state in his absence, riding the thick cold skies of Siberia in his airships, holding the Ob River line against Volkov’s troops, raising and organizing new units that were sent off to help Sergei Kirov’s Soviet Army. Now Karpov knew the memories of all that had happened after the war, where his brother lingered to set up a strong leadership group in his place, taking a few chosen confederates into his confidence and telling them that he had a journey to make.

“I may be gone for a very long time, but do not be surprised if I should return, suddenly, unexpectedly, like a man taking shape and form from the icy fog over the tundra.”

Karpov knew it all. He saw the shift forward to the late 1980’s, the return of his brother to Siberia, where the nation was shocked to see him rise again to lead the Free Siberian State. It was as if Churchill had vanished at the end of WWII, only to suddenly appear again 40 years later. Of course, few believed it was really the same man, but most accepted that this was his son, and embraced him as they had his father during that long terrible war in the 1940’s

Karpov saw it all, the rising tension with China that had resulted in the first Sino-Siberian war, one that had ended badly for Siberia. He saw the long struggle to rebuild the nation and assuage its wounded pride, and he learned now the slow growth of his brother’s plan to make good that loss. Through it all, he saw his own face aging, the lines deepening, hair thinning and going grey. He felt the loneliness of the man, feeling that half his true self had been lost long ago when Karpov and Fedorov made their dramatic shift forward. Yes, he felt the anguish, the fear, the yawning isolation of the Siberian, and with it came a feeling of sorrow born of shame and regret. As he made his bold leap forward in time, Karpov had never thought of what might happen to his brother.

Now he knew it all….

When Fedorov and Karpov first launched their plan to try and stop the initial regression of Kirov to the past, they had faced, and accepted, the death of their local selves to make room for their own arrival. Yet any emotion bound up in that moment had been masked by the abstract machinations of the time theory they had been wrangling with, and then quickly replaced by the elation of having made good on their plan.