John Schettler - Hammer of God

“Volkov? I was not aware that you have met with the man.”

“He communicates with me regularly, as he is very fond of making predictions about this war-a self styled prophet, or so I am told. OKW is set to attack Crete, but Volkov tells me this is useless. In fact, he has gone so far as to warn me it will likely result in very heavy casualties. Do you believe this?”

“I have not seen the intelligence on the British defenses on Crete, but every airborne operation is inherently risky.”

“Then what to do, Manstein?”

Manstein had a quick answer. “Why does the southern axis for Barbarossa offer us the real prize? The answer to that is simple-oil. Once we push through to join with Orenburg, then we have everything we need to end this war favorably. Yet how do we get those resources home to Germany? We cannot ship anything across the Black Sea until we control it, and it seems Raeder’s little plan for Hindenburg and Bismarck has met a recent setback.”

The look on Hitler’s face told Manstein that he had hit a nerve with that. “He tried to cover up the damage to Hindenburg and explain it all away,” Hitler said hotly. “It seems the British have more than new tanks! They also deployed some kind of new naval rocket bomb that was able to strike our ships from well over the horizon.”

“Oh? I have heard nothing of this.”

“You have been up north with your Panzer Korps.”

“It hardly matters,” said Manstein. “Raeder will not be able to move ships into the Black Sea. The Turks will not permit it, yet that is of no concern. If Barbarossa does take the southern axis, we can eliminate all the bases the Soviet Fleet must use to contest the Black Sea. Orenburg already controls everything from Novorossiysk to Batumi on the eastern shore, and with Barbarossa we will take Odessa, Nikolayev, and Sevastopol in the Crimea. After that, the only place the Black Sea Fleet can go is Istanbul.

“That is a neutral state,” Hitler cautioned.

“Well enough, but do not worry about the Black Sea Fleet. Frankly, I believe we can neutralize it with our air power, even if the Turks open their arms and invite them to Istanbul. It should not be a concern. That failing, we can simply take Istanbul, and the Dardanelles and Bosporus with it. We already have troops on the Turkish frontier. That is a scant 230 kilometers to Istanbul. Terrain favors the defense there, but an aggressive an imaginative plan could prevail. The Turkish Army is no match for us, and once we link up with the Orenburg Federation, Volkov’s forces in the Caucasus can be moved to the Turkish border. That will give them more than enough reason to shun Sergei Kirov. They may even be persuaded to join with us, and no further campaign would be necessary.”

“The British would do everything in their power to prevent that. What should we do about them, Manstein? Should I take Crete as OKW suggests?”

“Those are defensive measures more than anything else. Quite frankly, I believe the British will move against the Vichy French in Syria as soon as they can-that, and the issue of Iraq, will soon be uppermost in their minds. If I were the British commander, I would use Cyrenaica as a defensive buffer, and move as many troops against Syria as possible. Once I eliminate the French there, I secure my right flank, effect a conjunction with Turkey, protect the oil in Iraq and Iran, and open all those lines of communication even into Persia. Where is the largest oil field in the world? Right there in Iraq at Baba Gurgur near Kirkuk. That is what the British wish to hold, or at the very least deny us access. Where else can Britain operate? They certainly won’t invade Portugal any time soon, or attempt any campaign against French West Africa. Your buildup in Libya will prevent them from entering Tripolitania. So they will have no choice but to operate as I describe, and seize Syria and Iraq before the notion to do so enters our minds.”

“You propose I send German troops to stop them? How would I get them there?”

“There are only two ways,” said Manstein. “You can either wait for Rommel to build up enough strength to move again on land, or go there by air and sea. The former will take months, the latter is complicated by the fact that we cannot fly troops from airfields in Greece, because Tripoli in Lebanon is beyond the range of our Ju-52 transports. This means we must seize a new outpost first, to become a staging zone within range of Palestine and Syria.”

“This is why OKW suggests this plan against Crete.”

“Well enough, but it will take time, and will most likely hand the British Syria, Lebanon and Iraq-possibly even Iran. If OKW is really serious about this axis of attack on Egypt, then they should see the bird they already have in hand! We already have Rhodes, or at least the Italians occupy that place. That is well within the range of our JU-52s from bases around Athens. Move Student’s troops there, and use that as your springboard to land anywhere you choose-Crete, Cyprus, even Lebanon or Syria. Yes, it is over 700 kilometers to the Levant from Rhodes, but remember, the planes do not have to return. They can land at Vichy held air bases, all within range of our Ju-52s.”

“Yet only Student’s troops?”

“They might do in the short run to bolster the French, particularly if Rommel builds up and rattles his sword in Libya to keep the British preoccupied there. Another infantry division might be added. Yet two or three divisions isn’t much, no matter how good the troops are. Don’t expect the Fallschirmjagers to march on Alexandria. And moving anything more substantial through the Eastern Med by sea is risky, even if we could find the ships to do so. The Royal Navy demonstrated that in these recent engagements, and Raeder has not been able to guarantee naval supremacy yet. That may change, these rocket weapons the British have aside, but then again it may not come to pass. This means anything you send to Syria will have to be supplied by the French. Don’t you see, my Fuhrer? The problem of attacking the British in Egypt is simply a matter of logistics. Neither axis of attack is promising in that regard. We cannot adequately supply and sustain the forces necessary to defeat the British there, as they will make it their major war effort, and send everything they have to the Middle East-unless…”

Hitler’s dark eyes were on him now, waiting, the question obvious on his face.

“Unless you tackle the question of Turkey, my Fuhrer. Barbarossa will join hands with Ivan Volkov. Or will it? If Halder gets his way we will be off chasing the Russians through the streets of Moscow. But if we pursue the southern strategy, with the principle aim of securing the oil in the Caucasus, then only Old Man Turkey stands between the Wehrmacht and the British position in the Middle East.”

“You advise I attack Turkey?”

“That may be a difficult campaign. The terrain is very rugged, the road network impossible, but so was Greece and the Balkans, and you have seen what we accomplished there in little time. So I lay my baton upon Istanbul because if you ever really want to drive the British from the Middle East, you will need secure lines of communications to do so, by land, and not simply air or sea. A move as I have suggested here would see German and Axis allied forces encircling Turkey on every border. We may not have to lift another finger there. This alone could compel the Turks to submit, or at the very least sign a treaty of non-aggression with us. Careful negotiations could even secure passage for German troops and supplies through that country. That said, the Turkish rail system is not modernized. It may, at best, support no more than one or two Korps, perhaps five or six divisions, but the right divisions might just do the job. Don’t forget Baba Gurgur! If you continue to pursue your Mediterranean strategy without Turkey, the only other way to get at the British in Egypt is through the Western Desert. But that will take time we do not have, unless Barbarossa is delayed.”