Carl Frederick: Howl of the Seismologist

“You’d like to borrow my howl-log.”

“Only for tonight.”

Alex withdrew the notebook and handed it over. “Maybe we could meet here for breakfast tomorrow,” he said, hoping he didn’t sound too eager.

Katerina flipped through the pages. “I think I’m going to have a long night.” She closed the notebook. “How about a late breakfast or early lunch? Say at eleven?”

“Great!”

Late that night, Alex checked his e-mail.

Lieber Alex,

I have exciting news.

If you do not object, I’d like to invite Dr. Wakabayashi to our early lunch.

Viele liebe Grusse,

The place was almost empty when, at ten of eleven, Alex walked into the restaurant. But at a table near a window sat Takeo. A leather-bound notebook and an open pocket chess set lay in front of him.

Alex, walking over, saw that no pieces had been moved.

Takeo gestured to a chair. “A game perhaps?”

Alex sat. “Sure.” He saw a flurry at the door. “Wait. No. Later, perhaps. There’s Katerina.” Katerina swept up to the table. She greeted Takeo as she sat, then without further preamble, she withdrew a file folder from her handbag and faced Alex. “Wegener’s howls correlate to earthquakes—and with a five-sigma figure of merit!”

“Hey, that’s great,” said Alex.

“And,” said Katerina, “most of the howls that associate with quakes also are correlated with cosmic ray bursts.”

“Are you serious?” said Takeo.

“I’m only reporting the data.” Katerina flourished the file folder.

“Might one examine those data?”

“Certainly.” She passed the folder to Takeo.

Alex and Katerina sat in silence as Takeo, head down, riffled through the folder. After about a minute, Takeo looked up. “These data are… strong.”

“Then you believe my dog really can predict earthquakes?” said Alex, trying to keep the sound of victory out of his voice.

“It is so—if these data are accurate.” Takeo’s expression clouded. “But one would like to understand what stimulus the dogs are responding to.”

“A… new… sense,” said Katerina, stressing each word. “Your binding-of-spacetime idea.”

Takeo nodded. “Just so.”

“But,” Katerina went on, “the quake we felt here had a strange correlation.”

“Oh?” said Alex. “Stranger than the dog correlation?”

“This quake correlated with both the Tevatron and also the LHC being on.”

Alex saw Takeo stiffen. “Dr. Wakabayashi,” said Alex, sensing it was not a time for first names, “what’s wrong?”

“The LHC storing particles in the ring and also the LHC,” said Takeo, as if to himself. “One must think.” He took a notebook from his briefcase and started scribbling.

“What do the Tevatron and LHC have to do with it?” said Alex after a decent interval.

Takeo nodded, then closed his notebook. “High-energy particles moving at near light-speed weaken the bonding of the space-time through which they move,” he said. “Or so one believes.”

“What does it mean, weaken the bonding?” said Alex.

Takeo moved his hand as if drawing a horizontal line across a blackboard. “An ultra high-energy particle leaves a wake of micro-discontinuities, rents, in the fabric of space-time. And as for the Tevatron and LHC, if the wakes intersect, a surface of discontinuity, a 2-D surface, occurs.”

“Wouldn’t it be worse near the Large Hadron Collider?” said Alex. “It’s many times more powerful than the Tevatron, isn’t it?”

“Four times,” said Takeo.

“At the moment,” said Katerina.

“It would be much worse here,” said Takeo. “Here one is in the LHC’s wake.” Takeo gave a worried smile. “It is good the LHC was only running at four Tev. Otherwise…”

“Otherwise?” Alex prompted.

“There might possibly have been much bigger discontinuities. One could imagine a worse earthquake.”

Alex saw that Katerina seemed worried. “What did you mean ‘at the moment’?”

“It was on the morning news,” said Katerina. “Sometime this evening, they said. The LHC is expected to go online with seven, or perhaps even nine Tev.”

“Aree!” said Takeo from deep in his throat.

Alex swiveled to look at him. “What?”

“One must do a back-of-the-envelope calculation.”

Over the next five minutes, Takeo filled many pages of his notebook with equations and numbers.

Alex watched impatiently. Some envelope!

Then Takeo withdrew a calculator from his briefcase and did a more concrete calculation. He slid the calculator over to Alex. “This is the energy ratio… from seven teravolts as against four.”

Alex looked at the number. “Jeez! Are you saying that if the LHC at seven teravolts were operating at the same time as the Tevatron”—he tapped the calculator display—”this could happen?”

“It is so,” said Takeo.

“What… what are we going to do about it?” said Alex. “This really could be a global disaster.”

“Do?” said Takeo with a smile obviously pasted on. “Theoreticians don’t do. They theorize. And this theory is just that—a theory.”

“Don’t you believe in your theory, Professor Wakabayashi?” said Alex.

“Believe the theory? Intellectually, yes.” Takeo gave a slight shake of his head. “Emotionally… one doesn’t know. The theory does imply earthquakes. It’s just that the quality of the implication is uncertain.” He seemed to deflate. “And in any case, what can be done?”

“Well…” Alex bit his lip. “We can’t stop the LHC from turning on with seven teravolts, but… but maybe we can get them to shut down the Tevatron.”

“That would stop it, wouldn’t it?” said Katerina.

Takeo nodded. “Both machines must be running for there to be a 2-D contour.”

“Then,” said Alex. “Then I think we should go to the director and ask him to turn off the Tevatron.”

“He’ll laugh at us,” said Katerina.

“And if there is error,” said Takeo, “which is likely, then careers will be at risk.”

“When exactly is the LHC powering up?” said Alex, now very conscious of time.

“If I remember…” Katerina bit her lip. “I think they said seven p.m.”

“An odd time,” said Alex.

“If it is like the Tevatron,” said Takeo, “pre-paring takes many hours. One can not merely throw a switch.”

“Wait a minute!” Alex gripped the table. “That’s Geneva time, isn’t it? What’s the time difference between the Fermilab and CERN?”

“Seven hours, I think,” said Katerina.

Alex checked his watch. “Oh my god! That gives us just over an hour.” He slid his chair back. “We’ve got to try to convince the Director to shut it down.” He stood. “Please. Let’s go.”

Takeo looked down at the table and stayed put. “It could be injudicious for a staff member to confront the director.”

“You mean you think he might fire you,” said Katerina.

“The thought did occur.”

“Well, I have a safe university position.” Katerina stood. “I’ll go.”

“Professor Wakabayashi?” said Alex.

Takeo toyed with his pocket chess set and did not raise his head. “With regret.”

“I understand,” said Alex, softly. “We’ll come back after our meeting and let you know what happened.”

“Thank you.” Takeo paused. “Perhaps, though, one should not mention the dog to the director.”

The director’s secretary informed them that the director was unavailable. And she would not reveal where he was at the moment. No amount of pleading and arguing from Alex and Katerina resulted in the director becoming less unavailable.