Greg Egan: The Arrows of Time

Ramiro buzzed disdainfully. ‘Some people are very bad losers.’

Tarquinia said, ‘I don’t think it’s that. It’s not just pride; I think they’re genuinely afraid. I don’t know what I’d do, myself, if I honestly believed that everyone around me had just voted for a literally suicidal folly.’

‘If you honestly believed it, you’d have a good reason,’ Ramiro countered. ‘You’d try to talk the rest of us around, while staying open to the chance that you might be mistaken. There’d be no need for extortion.’

Tarquinia wasn’t convinced. ‘It’s a strange situation that we’re in. We have a whole range of ideas about the interaction of thermodynamic arrows, some of them better supported than others, but none of them conclusive. And if we can’t reconcile everyone’s intuitions, what counts as a perfect solution? Even if we’ve all listened to each other’s arguments in good faith, it’s always possible that someone’s going to end up believing that we’re heading for annihilation – and that by the time the evidence is indisputable, it will be far too late to retreat.’

Greta said, ‘We have a theory.’

Ramiro strained to hear her; the UV link to the Peerless was noisier than anything he’d experienced before.

‘So far, the rogue’s just followed a straight line,’ she said. ‘Maximum acceleration away from the Station, then maximum deceleration, without veering at all. If it keeps this up, we know exactly where it’s going to come to a halt – and there’s nothing there. It’s not a destination. It’s a staging point.’

‘So then it turns and heads for the Peerless ?’ Tarquinia suggested. ‘The rogue’s instructors are planning to announce that a gnat loaded with antimatter is on its way – but they’ve offset it far enough from the Station that they think we’ll have no idea where to look for it.’

‘That’s a possibility,’ Greta replied. ‘But they might not be trying to bargain at all. Why enter into negotiations if they can get what they want directly?’

Ramiro felt sick. ‘You think they’ll try to destroy the engines, without warning?’ Crashing a gnat into the base of the mountain – with either enough antimatter or enough sheer kinetic energy to do the job – would probably kill half the population in the process.

Greta’s voice crackled.

‘Say again,’ Tarquinia requested.

‘Not the engines. The corridor.’

Ramiro struggled to hear what followed, but eventually Greta’s theory became clear. She believed the rogue was doing nothing more than giving itself a run-up: travelling away from the Station in order to turn around and come back – with as much velocity as possible. Its target wasn’t the Peerless . It was the Station.

Given the angle of arrival, the collision would set the Station on a grazing trajectory towards the Object. When all those empty workshops and living quarters skidded across the surface of the asteroid, the explosion would send a plume of antimatter far out into the void – and the geometry of the impact would guarantee that the plume polluted a region that the Peerless needed to traverse if it was to commence the turnaround.

The hazard would take a generation to disperse. If they tried to steer the mountain through the debris, the system that protected the slopes from the usual smattering of tiny specks of antimatter would be utterly overwhelmed – and the failures would not be embarrassing spot fires, they’d be blasts that tore cavernous holes in the mountainside and risked setting everything ablaze.

‘Can we move the Station?’ Ramiro asked. The habitat’s own engines were weak things, intended to do no more than stabilise it in orbit around the Object, but if the rogue gnat could shift it with a few bells’ worth of accumulated power, surely their own benign craft could spend the same time gently towing it out of harm’s way?

‘Not quickly enough,’ Tarquinia replied. ‘With a load as massive as that, the limiting factor’s not our engines, it’s the strength of the tow ropes.’

‘Right.’ Ramiro had been wondering why the rogue wasn’t simply dragging the Station to its demise, but apart from the question of which approach would be the easiest to automate, the least conspicuous and the hardest to prevent, the go-away-come-back-and-crash method would actually deliver a faster result.

Greta said, ‘The only choice is to intercept the rogue.’

‘You couldn’t have worked all this out before we left?’ Ramiro complained. If the rogue came straight back towards the Station, there’d be nothing more to learn from its navigation system. They should have just tried to destroy it from the start.

The console emitted Gretaesque noises, then the link cut out completely.

Tarquinia turned to Ramiro. ‘Don’t worry,’ she said. ‘If it’s as predictable as they’re saying, we’ll match trajectories easily.’

‘You’re not the one who’ll have to climb on board and shut it down.’

‘If there’s any problem, we do have other options.’ Tarquinia gestured to the hold behind their couches. ‘Timed explosives. All we have to do is attach one of these and get out of the way.’

Ramiro could not have been less comforted. ‘High-velocity debris in the void – possibly spiced with antimatter. Do you really want to fly through that?’

‘If we give ourselves enough time, the risk will be negligible.’

‘And how much time is ours to give?’

Tarquinia turned to the navigation console, instructing it through the photonic corset that wrapped her torso beneath the cooling bag. When she’d finished, a flight plan appeared on the screen.

‘If Greta’s theory is right,’ Tarquinia said, ‘we’ll be able to match trajectories with the rogue in slightly more than five bells – about half a bell before the impact. If we set the explosive’s timer for three chimes, that will leave another three chimes for the debris to spread out – enough for the bulk of it to miss the Station. And in three chimes, we can put almost three severances between ourselves and the explosion. The rogue will still be accelerating as fast as it can towards the Station, so if we scarper in the opposite direction we’ll get the benefit of both engines.’

Ramiro was slightly mollified. Three severances wasn’t much on the scale of this map, but it was more than six gross times the height of the Peerless . The shrapnel they were fleeing would never slow down, but it would grow ever sparser.

‘So is Greta right or not?’ he asked. They’d lost the link with the Peerless , so they’d had no updates on the rogue’s actual behaviour.

Tarquinia flicked a switch on the console; a moment later the link was restored.

‘What did you do?’ Ramiro demanded.

‘I vented some air through an outlet next to the photoreceptor,’ Tarquinia explained. ‘Sometimes it just gets dusty.’

Greta asked anxiously, ‘Can you hear me?’

‘Loud and clear,’ Tarquinia replied.

‘The rogue came to a halt three lapses ago, and reversed without a pause. It’s headed straight back to the Station.’

‘Understood,’ Tarquinia said cheerfully. She made no move Ramiro could see, but she must have sent a command through her corset because the flight plan on the screen changed from grey to red – transformed from a hypothetical doodle to a set of firm instructions. The sky through the dome rotated a quarter-turn as the gnat swung around to redirect the engines.

‘We’re really going to do this?’ Ramiro asked numbly. He’d been half-hoping that the rogue would set out for the Peerless instead; forewarned, the mountain’s defenders could have launched any number of pilotless gnats against it, so the risk of it actually striking its target would have been vanishingly small. ‘What if we programmed a collision instead?’ he suggested. ‘Then we can climb out here and wait to be rescued.’ That would mean half a day in the void, but they had locator beacons on their cooling bags and they could take a couple of extra air tanks from the gnat.