Henry Paulson - On the Brink - Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System

When I stood at the podium at 10:00 a.m. that Thursday at the National Press Club, I knew only too well that the current system, weakened by excessive leverage and the housing collapse, would not be able to withstand a major shock.

To a room full of restless reporters I sketched the causes of the crisis. We all knew the trigger had been poor subprime lending, but I noted that this had been part of a much broader erosion of standards throughout corporate and consumer credit markets. Years of benign economic conditions and abundant liquidity had led investors to reach for yield; market participants and regulators had become complacent about all types of risks.

Among a raft of recommendations to better manage risk and to discourage excessive complexity, we called for enhanced oversight of mortgage originators by federal and state authorities, including nationwide licensing standards for mortgage brokers. We recommended reforming the credit rating process, especially for structured products. We called for greater disclosure by issuers of mortgage-backed securities regarding the due diligence they performed on underlying assets. And we suggested a wide range of improvements in the over-the-counter derivatives markets.

I finished and hurried back to the Treasury Building. I had hardly gotten inside my office when Bob Steel rushed in. Bob’s the consummate professional and is almost always upbeat. But that day he looked grim.

“I spent some time with Rodge Cohen this morning,” he said, mentioning the prominent bank lawyer advising Bear Stearns. “Bear is having liquidity problems. We’re trying to learn more.”

Before Bob had finished, I knew Bear Stearns was dead. Once word got out about liquidity problems, Bear’s clients would pull their money and funding would evaporate. My years on Wall Street had taught me this brutal truth: when financial institutions die, they die fast.

“This will be over within days,” I said.

I swallowed hard and braced myself. Whatever we did we would have to do quickly.

The crisis seemed to have arrived suddenly, but Bear Stearns’s plight was not a surprise. It was the smallest of the big five investment banks, after Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers. And while Bear hadn’t posted the massive losses of some of its rivals, its huge exposure to bonds and mortgages made it vulnerable. Bear had found itself in increasingly difficult straits since the previous summer, when, in one of the first signs of the impending crisis, it had been forced to shut down two hedge funds heavily invested in collateralized debt obligations.

For all that, I also knew Bear as a scrappy firm that liked to do things its own way: alone on Wall Street it had refused to help rescue Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Bear’s people were survivors. They had always seemed to find a way out of trouble.

For months, Steel and I had been pushing Bear, and many other investment banks and commercial banks, to raise capital and to improve their liquidity positions. Some, including Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, had raised billions from big investors such as foreign governments’ sovereign wealth funds. Bear had talked with several parties but had only managed to make an agreement with China’s Citic Securities under which each would invest $1 billion in the other. The deal was not the answer to Bear’s needs and in any case hadn’t yet closed.

Investment banks were more vulnerable to market pressures than commercial banks. For most of this country’s history, there had been no practical differences between them. But the Crash of 1929 changed that. Congress passed a series of reforms to protect bank depositors and investors by controlling speculation and curbing conflicts of interest. The Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933 prohibited depository institutions from engaging in what was seen as the risky business of underwriting securities. For many years, commercial banks, viewed as more conservative, took deposits and made loans, while investment banks, their more adventurous cousins, concentrated on underwriting, selling, and trading securities. But over time the dividing lines blurred, until in 1999 Congress allowed each side to jump fully into the other’s businesses. This gave rise to a wave of mergers that created the giant financial services companies that dominated the landscape in 2008.

But regulation had not kept pace with these changes. Oversight bodies were too fragmented and lacked adequate powers and authorities. That was one reason Treasury was working hard to complete our blueprint for a new regulatory structure.

Commercial banks enjoyed a greater safety net than investment banks did: When in trouble, commercial banks could turn to the Federal Reserve as their lender of last resort. If that failed, the government could step in, take the bank over, and put it in receivership. Seizing control of the bank’s assets, and standing behind its obligations, the FDIC could carefully wind down the bank, or sell it, to protect the financial system.

Though the more highly leveraged investment banks were regulated by the SEC and followed stricter accounting standards than the commercial banks did, the government had no power to intervene if one failed—even if that failure posed a systemic threat. The Fed had no facility through which investment banks could borrow, and the SEC was not a lender and did not inspire market confidence. In a world of large, global, intertwined financial institutions, the failure of one investment house, like Bear Stearns, could wreak havoc.

As soon as Bob Steel left my office that Thursday morning, I made a flurry of calls, beginning with the White House. Then I phoned a very concerned Tim Geithner, who assured me he was all over Bear. He asked if I had talked with SEC chairman Chris Cox.

I tracked Chris down in Atlanta. Though Bear’s name had been tarnished, Cox thought it had a good business and would make a perfect acquisition candidate, and that it ought to be able to find a buyer within 30 days. He’d spoken with Bear’s CEO, Alan Schwartz, who said he had unencumbered collateral—all he needed was for someone to loan against it.

President Bush soon called, and I explained the Bear Stearns situation and the consequences I saw for the markets, and the broader economy, if Bear failed. The president quickly grasped the seriousness of the problem and asked if there was a buyer for the stricken firm. I told him I didn’t yet know, but that we were thinking through all our options.

“This is the real thing,” I summed up. “We’re in danger of having a firm go down. We’re going to have to go into overdrive.”

Later that afternoon, Steel caught up with me and we agreed that he should go ahead and fly to New York for his daughter’s 21st birthday dinner. He could work from there and we might need him in the city, anyway. It was a stroke of luck that Bob went. He arrived at 6:00 p.m. or so and then found himself so caught on calls with officials at the New York Fed, the SEC, and Bear that he spent two hours on the phone in a conference room at the Westchester County Airport. He barely made it to his daughter’s party for dessert.

By the time I got home I was filled with foreboding. It was Thursday night, so the new Sports Illustrated had arrived. Wendy always left it for me on our bed, and I was flipping through the pages, trying to unwind, when the phone rang. It was Bob calling in from the airport in Westchester; he told me the situation was bad and that I would be hooked into a conference call around 8:00 p.m. with Ben Bernanke, Chris Cox, Tim Geithner, and key members of their staffs.

It had been an ugly day for Bear Stearns. Lenders and prime brokerage customers were fleeing so quickly that the company had told the SEC that without a solution, it would file for bankruptcy in the morning. We had limited options. A Bear bankruptcy could cause a domino effect, with other troubled banks unable to meet their obligations and failing. But it was unclear what we could do to stop that disaster. This was a dangerous situation and there weren’t any obvious answers.