Mike Maden - Drone Threat

“It’s over at the FBI lab right now,” Eaton said. “They’re doing a complete forensic workup on the vehicle, the letter — what you have in your hand there is a photocopy — and the flag. It might be a day or two before we get any hard clues, if there are any to get.” The attorney general was out of town at the moment and out of the loop, so Eaton was taking point with the FBI at Lane’s request — an unusual but temporary necessity. He wanted to keep the circle small for now. No need to drag the assistant attorney general into this.

“The FBI lab is the best in the world,” Chandler said.

“Agreed. But it isn’t like those idiot TV shows,” Eaton said. “There aren’t any magic machines to pull fingerprints off an eyelash. We might come up empty if there’s a pro behind this. We’re also running through the SIM cards to see what images were recorded by the two onboard cameras.”

“I’ve read that a large number of hobby drones get out of the range of their radio controllers. Maybe it’s just that?” Grafton said.

“They’re called flyaways,” Pearce said. “But the newer systems are designed to land immediately or return home if that happens.”

“So you’re certain this isn’t a flyaway?” Chandler asked.

“Not at all. But if you check the make and model of the drone you can find out how it’s programmed. Just call the manufacturer. But by the looks of it I’d say it was one of the newer ones. I doubt it was a flyaway, but we might as well double-check.”

“What if this thing wasn’t purchased at a store? Just assembled from parts?” Grafton asked.

“You can still check the part numbers on the components. I’d focus on the flight controller. There’s a slim chance that sourcing the components could lead you in the right direction — assuming the same person who bought the parts also assembled them and was kind enough to have it all sent to a single physical address.”

“Already on the to-do list,” Eaton said. “Like you say, it’s a long shot, but the FBI has one hell of a sniper rifle.”

“Could this drone be connected to yesterday’s subway attack?” Chandler asked.

“Anything’s possible, but I doubt it. Yesterday was a protest attack. No threats were made, no demands issued,” Eaton said.

“I agree. The operator yesterday used a controller and line-of-sight navigation. Not nearly as sophisticated as today’s event,” Pearce said.

“I’ve sent over some agents this morning to have a little conversation with our subway attackers,” Eaton said. The college-age anarchists had posted their drone gas attack videos on social media anonymously, but the FBI quickly found and arrested them. “Maybe they heard something on the grapevine. Or maybe we can get them to put their ears to the ground in exchange for lighter sentences.”

Lane glanced around the room. “Assuming this is a genuine ISIS threat, how credible is it?”

“What would be the point of making a worthless threat? Wouldn’t that just make them look weak?” Grafton asked.

“Maybe it’s a test to see how we’ll react,” Chandler said. “Probing our defenses.”

“Or lack thereof,” Grafton said. “How did that thing even get over the fence?”

“Too small to detect on radar,” Pearce said.

“But commercial drones are supposed to be programmed with firmware that won’t allow them to navigate near high-value targets,” Eaton said. “It’s called ‘geo-fencing.’”

“Must have been overwritten or deprogrammed,” Pearce said.

“And what about the other anti-drone defenses? The signal-disruption stuff?” Chandler asked.

“You said there were cameras onboard?” Pearce asked.

Eaton nodded.

“Have your people download the navigation software. My guess is those cameras were used for a visual navigation system to locate physical waypoints. You should have the FBI check for inertial navigation gear, too.”

“Accelerometers? Gyroscopes?” Lane asked. “Is that even possible? The ones on my aircraft were huge.”

“Everything’s smaller these days. Even your smartphone has them. But the sophisticated kind of inertial guidance system you need to fly an aircraft like this is no bigger than a ring box. Wiring it into a piece of autopiloting software is no problem if you know how to do the programming.”

“And ISIS has access to that kind of skill?” Lane asked.

“Without question,” Pearce said. “A thirteen-year-old can do it. Go to any online DIY website. The do-it-yourself crowd is very generous with the info, and the hardware is widely available.”

“That’s terrifying,” Grafton said.

Eaton tapped notes into her iPad. “I’ll have the software techs check on that right now.”

“Landing on the basketball court was smart,” Pearce added. “Far enough away that it didn’t appear to be a threat. Otherwise one of the Secret Service people might have shot it down with a service weapon.”

“But close enough on White House property to get our attention and make sure it got delivered,” Lane added.

“Smart thugs,” Chandler said.

Pearce nodded. “Smarter than you know.” He picked up the tablet again. Stared at the picture of the VTOL aircraft. “Whoever sent that letter was sending an even stronger message by flying this thing.”

Chandler frowned. “How so?”

“These things are small, low-tech, programmable, cheap. You can get them anywhere or build them yourself. They’re capable of small but significant payloads, especially with extended battery packs. You can’t see them, which means you can’t stop them. Whoever deployed this is telling us that he can strike anywhere at any time.”

“So you believe this really is a credible threat?” Lane asked.

“Yes, sir, I do.”

“What should we do about it?”

“Ground every one of them until they’re all registered and accounted for,” Chandler said. “Better yet, just get rid of the things.”

Pearce couldn’t believe Chandler wanted to continue the argument from the other day. “There are more than seven hundred thousand assembled commercial drones sold every year in this country alone. You can’t possibly locate them all. More important, why ground them?”

“Because they’re a damn threat,” Chandler snapped.

“There isn’t an industry in the world that isn’t rushing as fast as it can toward automation. Drones are used in a wide variety of vital economic, research, and rescue activities. We have no idea how far or fast this technology will go, but stopping it now would be like banning the personal computer in the 1980s. Our competitors will lap us economically and militarily if we don’t keep spurring this technology.”

“Even these civilian models?” Eaton asked.

“You never know where the next big thing is coming from. It was the private sector that developed the Predator drone, not the military.”

“Then we need to at least get all of the pilots licensed and the drones registered, just like cars,” Chandler said.

Pearce stifled a laugh. “You think an asshole like al-Mahdi is going to run down to the DMV to register his drones so we can keep track of them?”

“So what’s your solution?” Chandler asked.

“Right now there isn’t one,” Pearce said. He didn’t even want to think about small drones that could easily incorporate inexpensive stealth design features like wave-bouncing facets or even sophisticated radar-absorbing materials. Both would make them even more difficult to detect.

“Maybe we should send out some kind of alert to local police departments and state agencies. Give them some kind of heads-up for extra precaution, especially around infrastructure — dams, power stations, nuclear facilities,” Grafton said.