Mike Maden - Drone Command

“We are as well,” Ito said. “Shall we proceed?”

“Please.”

Ito nodded. “Of course, you know President Myers and Ambassador Davis.”

Lane nodded. “President Myers, Ambassador Davis. Good to see you both.”

Myers grinned. “It’s just Margaret, Mr. President.”

“And I believe you know Mr. Tanaka, the parliamentary senior vice minister of foreign affairs.”

“We’ve never met, but I’m well aware of Vice Minister Tanaka’s importance in your administration. I’m grateful he’s here with us. His expertise is invaluable. How may I help you, Mr. Prime Minister?”

Ito folded his hands in front of him. “I’m sure you’re well aware of the unfortunate events that have transpired today. The crash of a Japanese civilian aircraft into the Chinese drilling ship has led to mass protests across Japan and now China.”

Lane nodded. “I’ve been apprised by the State Department of the situation. My understanding is that the protests in Osaka and Nagasaki have been particularly violent, at least by Japanese standards.”

“Regrettably, Chinese businesses have been attacked — mostly smashed windows and graffiti,” Ito said. “And counterprotestors have been beaten with fists and pelted with stones, but no serious injuries have occurred.”

“But the situation is escalating. If the Japanese people become aroused, we can expect far more violence.” Tanaka added, “We have reports that yakuza elements are getting involved. They have guns and explosives, and aren’t afraid to use them.” Tanaka tried to sound concerned. In fact, he was counting on his old friend Kobayashi to escalate the violence as quickly as possible. The yakuza boss had already silenced a number of prominent left-wing critics in small acts of terror that hadn’t yet reached the police blotters.

“I’m even more concerned about events in China. The current violence there is far surpassing the mass protests that unfolded slightly more than a week ago. At least two Japanese nationals have been killed. Our foreign minister has issued a travel warning, urging our citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to or within China. Some Japanese citizens have already sought refuge at our embassy in Beijing.”

“My understanding is that your government has issued a formal apology to Beijing for the suicide attack today?”

“Over my strong protest,” Tanaka said.

Ito nodded. “Yes, but the apology was rejected.”

“And the rejection has been made public,” Tanaka said. “To our great embarrassment.”

“Was it wise to go public with that information?” Myers asked.

“The apology and rejection were issued through back channels. Somehow, the information was leaked,” Ito said.

Only an act of iron will kept a grin from stealing across Tanaka’s scowling face. His people had leaked the story to one of the right-wing papers, along with one of the largest left-leaning blogs. Tanaka knew that both sides would be furious, albeit for different reasons. The more pressure he could bring to bear on Ito, the better. He thought Ito was weak, too willing to negotiate and compromise. Properly applied pressure would force him to act in the national interest.

“Our Ministry of Defense has put the JSDF on high alert,” Tanaka said.

“That will only add fuel to the fire, don’t you think?” Ambassador Davis asked. “The Chinese might see that as a preparation for hostilities.”

“The JSDF has orders to engage in no provocative actions,” Ito said. “My government is under extreme pressure to respond. My own party is ready to revolt if I don’t act swiftly and decisively.”

“I understand your situation, but I urge you to refrain from anything rash,” Lane said.

“Rash? Our satellites indicate that the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning is preparing to set sail within twenty-four hours from its port in Ningbo,” Tanaka said. “Our intelligence service reports that a PLA marine assault battalion has just arrived in Ningbo as well.”

“The CIA confirms both of those reports,” Lane said. “I understand your concerns. But these could all be preparations for a military exercise, not an invasion of the Senkakus.”

“Would it be easier to block the Chinese from invading the islands or driving them out after they’ve landed?” Tanaka asked.

“Let’s hope that neither situation will occur,” Lane said.

“And if it does?” Tanaka asked.

That’s the question, isn’t it? Lane thought. And my answer may plunge us all into war. “The best course of action is for us to do everything we can to prevent either from happening.”

“If we restrain ourselves, we give the Chinese the opportunity to deescalate,” Ambassador Davis said.

“For the sake of argument, let’s assume we restrain ourselves. Let’s further assume the Chinese take our restraint as cowardice and decide to send the Liaoning and its support ships to the Senkakus, along with that battalion of marines. What will you do then, Mr. President?” Tanaka jabbed a finger at the desk, driving home his question.

“Katsu!” Ito said. In nearly whispered Japanese, the prime minister urged his friend to restrain himself. But Tanaka wouldn’t relent. He glowered at the video screen.

Lane took a sip of water, considering his reply. “I know President Myers briefed you on her visit to Ningbo. She was able to confirm the existence of the Wu-14, a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of disabling or destroying an aircraft carrier. This is classified information, gentlemen, but the United States currently has no known defense against this weapon. We would throw every available antimissile defense weapon at it, but all of our computer models show that the Chinese would likely score a killing strike.”

“You have other weapons in your arsenal,” Tanaka insisted. “You could take out their aircraft carrier with a sub-launched cruise missile.”

“A preemptive strike?” Myers asked, incredulous. “Like Pearl Harbor?”

“I was thinking about Israel’s Six-Day War. Do you disagree with the wisdom of their strategy?”

Myers didn’t, of course. Israel’s preemptive assault on the Egyptian air force allowed it to prevail in its war against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan.

“Or perhaps we’re speaking of deterrence,” Ito offered. “If the Chinese sink the George Washington , we sink the Liaoning . That act alone would set back their carrier program by a decade. That threat might be enough to dissuade the Chinese from any rash decisions.”

Myers shared a glance with Davis. A career diplomat, Davis had studied and lived in Japan for a decade before joining the State Department. His raised eyebrow confirmed her intuition. Ito’s use of the word “we” was significant.

“My generals and admirals are urging me to avoid conflict at all costs. Once hostilities begin, there’s no way to predict how far or how fast they would escalate. Even the threat of retaliation would prove dangerous in the current climate,” Lane said.

Myers hated to hear Lane talk like this. It almost sounded weak and cowardly. But she knew Lane and knew his distinguished combat record. She also understood the incredible pressure he must have been under from the Pentagon. When all of your senior military advisors tell you not to do something that might start a war, you tend to listen, even if you are the commander in chief. Caution was in order. The stakes were high — the highest. If a war actually did break out, there was no guarantee it would end favorably for the U.S. Wars were notoriously unpredictable. Pearce was fond of quoting the heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

“I’m sure the Chinese know as well as we do about your unwillingness to do anything to provoke them. Don’t you see that such passivity will goad them into action?” Tanaka insisted. “If you’re not willing to show your sword, then your enemies will assume you can’t use it.”