Frederick Forsyth - The Afghan

They were taken on, joining the other four seamen who made up the crew, and the Dona Maria sailed only a day late.

Captain Montalban knew vaguely that most of India is Hindu, but he had no idea that there are also a hundred and fifty million Muslims. He was not aware that the radicalization of Indian Muslims has been just as vigorous as in Pakistan, or that Kerala, once the hotbed of communism, has been particularly receptive territory for Islamist extremism.

His two new crewmen had indeed worked their way from India as deckhands, but on orders and to gain experience. And finally the Catholic Venezuelan had no idea that though neither had suicide in mind, they were working with, and for, Jamaat al-Muslimeen. The two unfortunates in the bar had been killed precisely to put the two Indian matelots on his ship.

Marek Gumienny chose to fly the Atlantic when he heard the report from the Far East. But he brought with him a specialist in a different discipline. “Arab experts have served their purpose, Steve,” he told Hill before he flew.

“Now we need people who know the world’s merchant marine.” The man he brought was from America ’s Bureau of Customs and Border Protection, merchant marine division. Steve Hill came north from London accompanied by another of his colleagues; he came from the SIS’s antiterrorism desk, maritime section.

At Edzell, the two younger men met: Chuck Hemingway from New York and Sam Seymour from London. Both had heard of the other from the reading of papers and briefings within the West’s antiterror community. They were told they had twelve hours to go into a huddle and come up with an evaluation of the threat and a game plan for coping with it. When they addressed Gumienny Hill, Phillips and McDonald, Chuck Hemingway went first.

“This is not just a hunt; this is a search for a needle in a haystack. A hunt has a known target. All we have is something that floats. Maybe. Let me lay it on the line.

“There are forty-six thousand merchant ships plying their trade on the world’s oceans as of now. Half of them are flying flags of convenience, which can be switched almost at the whim of the captain.

“Six-sevenths of the world’s surface is covered by ocean, an area so vast that literally thousands of ships are out of sight of land or any other vessel at any given time.

“Eighty percent of the world’s trade is still carried out by sea, and that means just under six billion tons. And there are four thousand viable merchant ports around the world.

“Finally, you want to find a vessel, but you don’t know her type, size, tonnage, contours, age, ownership, stern flag, captain or name. To have a hope of tracing this vessel-we call them ‘ghost ships’-we will need more that that, or a large dose of luck. Can you offer us either?”

There was a depressed silence.

“That’s damn downbeat,” said Marek Gumienny. “Sam, can you suggest a ray of hope?”

“Chuck and I agree there might be a way if we identify the kind of target the terrorists could be aiming for, then check out any ship heading toward that target and demand a gunpoint inspection of ship and cargo,” said Seymour. “We’re all listening,” said Hill. “What kind of target could they be most likely heading toward?”

“People in our line of business have been worried for years, and filing reports for years. The oceans are a terrorists’ playground. The fact that Al Qaeda chose for its first huge spectacular an attack from the air was actually illogical. They only hoped to take out four floors of the World Trade Center towers, and even then they were incredibly lucky. All that time, the sea has been beckoning to them.”

“Security of ports and harbors has been massively tightened,” snapped Marek Gumienny. “I know, I have seen the budgets.”

“With respect, sir, not enough. We know ship hijacking in the waters around Indonesia -that is, in all directions-has been steadily increasing since the turn of the millennium. Some has simply been to make money to fund terrorism’s coffers. Other events at sea defy logic.”

“Such as?”

“There have been ten cases of sea dacoits stealing tugs. Some have never been recovered. They have no value as resales because they are pretty noticeable and hard to disguise. What are they for? We think they could be used to tow a captured supertanker right into a busy international port like Singapore.” “And blow her up?” asked Hill.

“No need. Just sink her with her cargo hatches open. The port would be closed for a decade.”

“Okay,” said Marek Gumienny, “so… possible target number one. Take over a supertanker and use her to close down a commercial port. This is a spectacular? Sounds pretty mundane, except for the port in question… No casualties.” “It gets worse,” said Chuck Hemingway. “There are other things that can be destroyed with a blocking ship, with vast damage to the world’s economy. In his October 2004 video, bin Laden himself said he was switching to ‘economic damage’.”

“Nobody out there in the shopping malls or the gas stations realizes how the whole of world trade is now geared to just-in-time delivery. No one wants to store or stockpile anymore. The T-shirt made in China that sold in Dallas on Monday probably arrived at the docks the previous Friday. Same with gasoline. “What about the Panama Canal? Or the Suez? Close them down and the whole global economy spins into chaos. You are talking damage in the hundreds of billions of dollars. There are ten other straits so narrow and so vital that sinking a really big freighter or tanker broadside would close them.” “All right,” said Marek Gumienny. “Look, I have a president and the other five principals to report to. You, Steve, have a prime minister. We cannot just sit on this message from Crowbar. Nor can we simply burst into tears. We have to propose concrete measures. They will want to be active, to be seen to be doing something. So list the likelihoods, and suggest some countermeasures. Dammit, we are not without resources of self-defense.”

Chuck Hemingway produced a paper that he and Seymour had worked on earlier. “Okay, sir, we feel probability one is likely to be the taking over of a very large vessel-tanker, freighter, ore carrier-and her sinking in a narrow but vital shipping bottleneck. Measures to counter? Identify all such bottlenecks and post warships at either end. All entering vessels to be boarded by Marines.” “Christ,” said Steve Hill, “that will cause chaos. It will be claimed we are acting as pirates. What about the owners of the host waters? Don’t they have a say?”

“If the terrorists succeed, both the other ships and the coastal countries will be ruined. There need be no delays-the Marines can board without the freighter slowing down. And, frankly, the terrorists on board any ghost ship cannot permit boarding. They have to fire back, expose themselves and scuttle prematurely. I think the shipowners will see it our way.”

“Probability two?” queried Steve Hill.

“Running the ghost ship, crammed with explosives, into a major facility, like an island of oil pipes or an oil rig, and blowing it to pieces. It causes astronomical ecodamage and economic ruin for years. Saddam Hussein did it to Kuwait, torching all their oil wells as the coalition moved in, so that he would leave them living off scorched earth. Countermeasure, same again. Identify and intercept every vessel even approaching the facility. Secure positive identification outside the ten-mile cordon sanitaire.” “We don’t have enough warships,” protested Steve Hill. “Every island, every seashore oil refiner, every offshore rig?”

“That is why the national owners have to share the cost burden. And it need not be a warship. If any interceptor vessel is fired on, the ghost ship is exposed, and may be sunk from the air, sir.”