Tom Clancy - The Bear and the Dragon

“It looks as if Secretary Winston’s predictions on the financial consequences of the Beijing Incident might be coming true.”

“They’re talking about precipitous consequences,” Scott Adler observed coolly. “Where’s Tony?”

“Secretary Bretano’s down at Fort Hood, Texas, looking at the heavy troopers at Third Corps. He gets back late tonight. If we yank him back in a hurry, people will notice,” van Damm told the rest.

“Ed, will you object if we get this to him, secure?”

“No.”

“Okay.” Ryan nodded and reached across his desk for his phone. “Send Andrea in, please.” That took less than five seconds.

“Yes, Mr. President?”

“Could you walk this over to Signals, and have them TAPDANCE it to THUNDER?” He handed her the document. “Then please bring it back here?”

“Yes, sir.”

“Thanks, Andrea,” Ryan told the disappearing form. Then he took a drink of water and turned to his guests. “Okay, it looks pretty serious. How serious is it?”

“We’re bringing Professor Weaver down from Brown to evaluate it for us. He’s about the best guy in the country for reading their minds.”

“Why the hell doesn’t he work for me?” Jack asked.

“He likes it at Brown. He comes from Rhode Island. We’ve offered him a job across the river half a dozen times that I know of,” DCI Foley told Ryan, “but he always says the same thing.”

“Same at State, Jack. I’ve known George for fifteen years or more. He doesn’t want to work for the government.”

“Your kind of man, Jack,” Arnie added for a little levity.

“Besides, he can make more money as a contractor, can’t he? Ed, when he comes down, make sure he comes in to see me.”

“When? You’re flying out in a few hours,” Ed pointed out.

“Shit.” Ryan remembered it now. Callie Weston was just finishing up the last of his official speeches in her office across the street. She was even coming across on Air Force One with the official party. Why was it that you couldn’t deal with things one at a time? Because at this level, they just didn’t arrive that way.

“All right,” Jack said next. “We need to evaluate how serious this is, and then figure a way to forestall it. That means-what?”

“One of several things. We can approach them quietly,” SecState Adler said. “You know, tell them that this has gone too far, and we want to work with them on the sly to ameliorate the situation.”

“Except Ambassador Hitch is over here now, consulting, remember? Where’s he doing it today, Congressional or Burning Tree?” POTUS asked. Hitch enjoyed golf, a hobby he could hardly pursue in Beijing. Ryan could sympathize. He was lucky to get in one round a week, and what swing he’d once had was gone with the wind.

“The DCM in Beijing is too junior for something like this. No matter what we said through him, they wouldn’t take it seriously enough.”

“And what, exactly, could we give them?” Winston asked. “There’s nothing big enough to make them happy that we could keep quiet. They’d have to give us something so that we could justify giving them anything, and from what I see here, they don’t want to give us anything but a bellyache. We’re limited in our action by what the country will tolerate.”

“You think they’d tolerate a shooting war?” Adler snapped.

“Be cool, Scott. There are practical considerations. Anything juicy enough to make these Chinese bastards happy has to be approved by Congress, right? To get such a concession through Congress would mean giving them the justification for it.” Winston waved the secret document in his hand. “But we can’t do that because Ed here would have a fit, and even if we did, somebody on the Hill would leak it to the papers in a New York minute, and half of them would call it danegeld, and say fuck the Chinks, millions for defense but not one penny for tribute. Am I right?”

“Yes,” Arnie answered. “The other half would call it responsible statesmanship, but the average Joe out there wouldn’t much like it. The average citizen would expect you to call Premier Xu on the phone and say, ‘Better not do this, buddy,’ and expect it to stick.”

“Which would, by the way, kill SONGBIRD,” Mary Pat added as a warning, lest they take that option seriously. “That would end a human life, and deny us further information that we need to have. And from my reading of this report, Xu would deny everything and just keep going forward. They really think they’re in a corner, but they can’t see a way to smart themselves out of it.”

“The danger is …?” TRADER asked.

“Internal political collapse,” Ryan explained. “They’re afraid that if anything upsets the political or economic conditions inside the country, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. With serious consequences for the current royal family of the PRC.”

“Called the chop.” Ben Goodley had to say something, and that was an easy one. “Actually a rifle bullet today.” It didn’t help him feel much better. He was out of his depth and he knew it.

That’s when the President’s STU rang. It was SecDef Tony Bretano, THUNDER. “Yeah,” Ryan said. “Putting you on speaker, Tony. Scott, George, Arnie, Ed, Mary Pat, and Ben are here, and we just read what you got.”

“I presume this is real?”

“Real as hell,” Ed Foley told the newest member of the SORGE/ SONGBIRD chorus.

“This is worrisome.”

“On that we are agreed, Tony. Where are you now?”

“Standing on top of a Bradley in the parking lot. Never seen so many tanks and guns in my life. Feels like real power here.”

“Yeah, well, what you just read shows you the limits of our power.”

“So I gather. If you want to know what I think we should do about it-well, make it clear to them somehow that this would be a really bad play for them.”

“How do we do that, Tony?” Adler asked.

“Some animals-the puffer fish, for example. When threatened, it swallows a gallon of water and expands its size-makes it look too big to eat.”

Ryan was surprised to hear that. He’d no idea that Bretano knew anything about animals. He was a physics and science guy. Well, maybe he watched the Discovery Channel like everyone else.

“Scare them, you mean?”

“Impress them, better way of putting it.”

“Jack, we’re going to Warsaw-we can let Grushavoy know about this … how about we invite him into NATO? The Poles are there already. It would commit all of Europe to come to Russia’s defense in the event of an invasion. I mean, that’s what alliances and mutual-defense treaties are all about. ‘You’re not just messing with me, Charlie. You’re messing with all my friends, too.’ It’s worked for a long time.”

Ryan considered that one, and looked around the room. “Thoughts?”

“It’s something,” Winston thought.

“But what about the other NATO countries? Will they buy into this? The whole purpose of NATO,” Goodley reminded them, “was to protect them from the Russians.”

“The Soviets,” Adler corrected. “Not the same thing anymore, remember?”

“The same people, the same language, sir,” Goodley persisted. He felt pretty secure on this one. “What you propose is an elegant possible solution to the present problem, but to make it happen we’d have to share SORGE with other countries, wouldn’t we?” The suggestion made the Foleys both wince. There were few things on the planet as talkative as a chief of government.

“What the hell, we’ve been watching their military with overheads for a long time. We can say that we’re catching stuff there that makes us nervous. Good enough for the unwashed,” the DCI offered.

“Next, how do we persuade the Russians?” Jack wondered aloud. “This could be seen in Moscow as a huge loss of face.”