Dick Couch - Out of the Ashes

“Do you remember the movie Top Gun, Mr. President?”

“Do I ever.”

“Remember Maverick’s saying, ‘I feel the need — the need for speed’?”

“Yes. That was kind of an unforgettable line.”

“That’s what we need. More speed. We need to turn inside the new threat’s OODA loop.”

“OODA loop?”

“Sorry, Mr. President. I’m still excising military acronyms from my vocabulary. OODA stands for ‘observe, orient, decide, and act.’ It was a brainchild of Air Force Colonel John Boyd, and, as you might guess, its first application was to fighter tactics.”

“Come to think of it, I believe I’ve at least heard the term before.”

“I suspect you don’t need or want a full tutorial on this, Mr. President, but boiled down to its basics, the OODA loop concept says all decision-making occurs in a recurring cycle of observe-orient-decide-act. Any entity, whether an individual or an organization, that can process this cycle quickly, observing and reacting to unfolding events more rapidly than an opponent, can thereby ‘get inside’ the opponent’s decision cycle, get inside their OODA loop, and gain the advantage.”

“I think I see that. It’s a simple but elegant concept. So how do you see it applying to Op-Center?”

“It’s just this. As superb as our intelligence and military organizations are, there are several problems that come with their territory.”

“Go on.”

“First, there’s our intelligence community, our IC. It does a fine job in many areas, but it’s just not structured for rapid intelligence collation. It can’t get inside the new, professional terrorists’ OODA loop. There is simply too much lag time between when the information is collected as raw intelligence, analyzed, and converted into actionable intelligence. We collect plenty of intelligence; we can and do capture almost everything we need to take action. The problem lies in speedy processing of that information and focusing on anticipatory intelligence.”

“Anticipatory intelligence?”

“Yes. We need to build intelligence algorithms that use what we know or can surmise to anticipate what might happen next. To use a well-known sports metaphor, it’s roughly analogous to ‘skating to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.’”

“So are you proposing we restructure our intelligence community? I know Adam Putnam is a good man, and he’ll be responsive.”

“No, I’m not. The IC does so many things well that you’ll lose far more than you gain if you turn them upside down and shake them real hard.”

“I see. So what are you proposing?”

“I’ll get to that in a moment, Mr. President, but there are two parts to this, and we need to discuss the military side also.”

“Fine.”

“Again, in the same vein as what I just said about the intelligence community, our military is the finest in the world and it is battle-hardened. There are so many things it does superbly; we should not fiddle with what it does.”

Williams paused for a moment.

“However, Mr. President, there is a problem with how we conduct proportional military response today. Even our Tier One special operations elements need time, permissions, and information before they go out the door. Quite often tactical, theater, congressional, and even political issues get in the way, and it takes time to go up the line for a launch-the-strike order. This also applies to the prepositioning of forces early on in anticipation of a strike. Unfortunately, the way our military must work prevents them from getting inside these new, professional terrorists’ OODA loop.”

“So how do you see Op-Center moving faster than the terrorists?”

“The concept of operations I have for Op-Center is structured to get inside the new professional terrorist threat. I’ll ask just two things from you, Mr. President, and I think these are things on which you’ll want to get buy-in from your intelligence community and your military leadership.”

“What are they?”

“First, I’ll need Op-Center to have access to all intelligence feeds, and in real time. I’ll need unimpeded access. If it flows to Mr. Putnam’s National Counterterrorism Center, it flows to Op-Center.”

“If we agree to do that, what will you do differently than what they do at the NCTC?”

“Mr. President, we’re facing a situation where, as good as the intelligence community analysts are, a human in the loop actually slows things down and all but guarantees failure. To make Op-Center work to defeat today’s threat, I need to hire bright minds from Silicon Valley. Then I have to have them build collation architecture with the right sensitivities and algorithms that can electronically filter all raw intelligence data and distill a problem faster than even the best analysts. It’s the only way we can generate the anticipatory intelligence we need to get inside any plotters’ OODA loop.”

“You’re not talking about ‘automating’ our intelligence, are you?”

“No, I’m not. There will always be a human at the end of the process. We just need to adapt what Google, Amazon, and eBay do so well. I can build a ‘Geek Tank’ that can get us anticipatory and actionable intelligence quickly enough so we can respond before a terrorist strikes. I’ll have to hire the best talent available and we’ll need to pay them what they’re worth in the competitive marketplace. I don’t anticipate it will be cheap.”

“I expect it won’t be, however, it sounds like it’s worth a try and we do need the best minds we can bring to the problem. Yet how will you solve the issue you described regarding how fast our military can respond?”

“I know our military is stretched thin as it is, so I need to be economical with what I request. I propose that Op-Center have a dedicated Joint Special Operations Command element that will allow it to conduct platoon-sized operations supported by ground enablers and aviation components that are completely under expeditionary command of Op-Center. If the Special Operations Command commander can put this in place, and brief all combatant commanders that when this special JSOC unit is operating in their area it must receive the appropriate amount of support and operational security it needs, I think we can have a military unit that can get inside the enemy’s OODA loop.”

“That sounds like a reasonable request.”

“Nevertheless, there’s one more thing. I will need to have authority to surge this group into theater when there is even a hint they may be needed. There will be false alarms, and we may well surge this unit a half dozen times without having them see action, but that’s the only way they can be on-scene to deal with a short-fused crisis.”

“If it’s a small enough footprint, I think we can make that work.”

“Thank you, Mr. President, and per what we discussed during our initial meeting, my primary focus with Op-Center will be on external dangers, reaching out beyond our shores to nip the threat in the bud before it reaches our soil. In the military we call this ‘shooting the archer instead of the arrow.’”

“Yes, I’m familiar with that term.”

“As you know all too well, sir, the prohibitions against using military forces on U.S. territory are well established in law and practice. However, if we get actionable intelligence on a threat within our borders we will pass that to the attorney general and the FBI director and they can bring their Critical Incident Response Group to bear. I’ve already established a dialogue with both your AG and FBI director and they are receptive to this.”

“Good, Chase. I appreciate you taking that on. And I agree, let’s have Op-Center focus outward for now.”