Iain Pears - Stone's Fall

'Can you give me any reason why we should in any way give assistance to Great Britain?'

'From our point of view, or from yours? I can think of many.'

'Really? It is in Russia's interests to weaken Britain as much as possible, surely? India, the Ottoman Empire, the Mediterranean, the Balkans. In all these areas our policies are diametrically opposed.'

'That is true. But I do not think your Government believes that Afghanistan is the major problem you face at the moment.'

'And what would you say that is?'

'Bismarck has gone. The treaty you had with Germany went with him. You have no allies, no friends, and you have a gigantic border facing the most powerful army in the world.'

'And England will come to our aid in exchange for a few bars of gold?'

'No. No more than it will help France recover Alsace. But you, as a military man, know that the Russian army is woefully unprepared for modern war. It has no railways to ferry troops and supplies; not enough factories to produce armaments; a navy which would scarcely trouble Nelson, even if the sailors were well trained. You are a vast empire, and a military pygmy. You have the men, but lack the more important aspect of modern warfare. Which is money.'

Good point, I thought, and nicely put. Goschen was revealing a combative streak I had not suspected he possessed.

'What we offer is to let the French assist you. They seem open to the proposal.'

'You want to buy us with other people's money?'

'Britain's banks are supreme in the world. For the past twenty years they have made a fortune out of South America. That, as you know, has now come to an abrupt end. So they will be looking for new markets. They will crowd France out of any they choose to concentrate on. We offer the French a free hand in Russia. We will offer only a token competition for form's sake. France will be able to grow its banking sector, strengthen it in ways it could not otherwise do. And you will get all the money you desperately need.

'The point is,' Goschen continued, 'if there is a general financial crisis, France will not be in a position to lend you a single centime. If the banks of London are crippled, so will many French banks be. Capital will evaporate, loans vanish like morning mist. If you want a modern army or navy, then you must leave your money in Barings' vaults. What is more, you know this perfectly well.'

The Russian frowned. 'I have been told similar things by my advisers. The doctrine that you must strengthen your enemy in order to defeat him I find a bizarre one.'

'It is nonetheless the case. I could name you at least six French banks which would be badly wounded if Barings fails. All hold Barings paper, all have loaned Russia money.'

'There must be more than that. You paint me a picture of paradox, where it becomes logical for us to help our worst enemy. But, in return, our worst enemy must help us.'

'Go on.'

Here it comes, here comes the bill, I thought.

'You are afraid of Russian influence; you must help us increase that influence. You fear our interference in the Ottoman Empire; you must make our interference more effective. You fear we want to build a fleet to challenge you in the Black Sea, the Straits, the Mediterranean itself. You must help us build a fleet that can defeat you. That is the price, Mr Goschen. The Russian navy needs a shipyard on the Black Sea coast, capable of building and maintaining everything that floats. The latest weapons, the best facilities. If you agree to that, then I will believe you are serious, and we can then discuss Barings.'

'I'm afraid that would be impossible,' Goschen replied instantly. 'Even were we minded to do so, it could not be done. No government would survive such a thing; any which tried would fall within weeks, and be replaced by one who promised to oppose it absolutely.'

'In that case, I fear we have difficulties,' said the Count sadly. 'I have tried to be reasonable – you are no doubt as aware as I that we could have asked for very much more. If such a small thing cannot be done, then I can offer no more. I, too, have people to satisfy. I cannot propose something which seems like a humiliating failure.'

I pulled Wilkinson aside. 'Keep him talking,' I said quietly. 'Whatever you do, do not let him leave. I have an idea. Just make sure he's here when I get back.'

I took Elizabeth's carriage, which clattered through the streets at a breakneck pace, hurtling through the streets at the sort of speed which had pedestrians cursing me and the poor horses sweating profusely by the time we pulled up at the Hôtel du Louvre. I didn't bother with announcing myself, just ran up the stairs, all four floors, and along the corridor to Stone's suite, and hammered on the door.

'You must come. You're needed.'

We were back in the carriage a few moments later, back at her house twenty minutes after that. We had been gone an hour, and the Russians were losing their tempers by the time we arrived. So, it must be said, were Goschen and Wilkinson, who felt like fools, having to make polite and meaningless conversation all that time.

'A private word, please,' I said, and the Russians nodded as we trooped out.

'This is John Stone, Chancellor,' I said. 'I think he might be able to help.'

Goschen nodded. 'How?'

'Is your objection to a Russian naval base fundamental? That is to say, is the problem the base, or the consequences of people knowing about it?'

'Both. It would dramatically shift the balance of power in the Near East. I suppose we could live with that, but the public would not wear it. We'd be massacred.'

'And if no one knew?'

'How could anyone not know? Don't be absurd.'

I nodded to Stone, who I now saw for the first time working as a businessman. And by heavens he was impressive. He had only had a rapid account from me, and even with that he managed to take over and dominate the meeting with extraordinary speed.

'If the Russians want a base then they have to get it from Britain, practically speaking,' he said. 'We are the only country which could mobilise the resources for the sort of thing they must have in mind. Enough to maintain a fleet,' here Goschen grimaced, 'supplies, equipment, engineering shops. Clearly a major project. They don't have the capital, the workforce or the expertise to design, build and run it. Nor, I must say, do the French have enough spare capacity to provide it. The Germans do, but won't.

'Nor can we,' he went on. 'Or cannot appear to. And there would be outrage in Britain against any country – France, say – which did. Is that correct?'

Goschen nodded. 'It would be tantamount to an act of war if the French built the Russians such a thing.'

'Well,' Stone continued thoughtfully, 'it could be done. I'm sure that French banks would float the bonds to raise the money on behalf of the Russian Government; it could be a general fund for development. There would be no need to specify what it is for, if the interest rate was high enough. I could form a new construction company, registered in somewhere like Belgium, with shareholdings held in trust by banks across the Continent. As for the workforce, the crucial personnel would come from yards across Europe, directed at a distance by my companies. It would be perfectly possible to set up a structure so impenetrable that no one could ever find out who owned it. And the Russians could hail it as a triumph of Russian engineering, a sign of their industrial progress. I cannot speak about the strategic consequences, of course. That is outside my area of expertise. But if you are prepared to allow a base to be built, then it could be done without anyone knowing who was responsible.'

That was a summary; the actual discussion was much longer and far more technical. Goschen was both a money man and a politician and wanted to know exactly what Stone was suggesting. The more he heard, the more Stone dealt with his objections, the more I could see him regaining confidence and determination.