Герд Гигеренцер - Понимать риски. Как выбирать правильный курс

Kurz-Milcke E., Gigerenzer G., Martignon L. (2011). Risiken durchschauen: Graphische und analoge Werkzeuge. Stochastik in der Schule 31, 8–16.

Labarge A. S., McCaffrey R. J., Brown T. A. (2003). Neuropsychologists’ ability to determine the predictive value of diagnostic tests. Clinical Neuropsychology 18, 165–175.

Larson C. A. (2011). Evidence-based medicine: An analysis of prophylactic bilateral oophorectomy at time of hysterectomy for benign conditions. Current Oncology 18, 13–15.

LeDoux J. E. (1996). The emotional brain. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Lee C. I., Haims A. H., Monico E. P., Brink J. A., Forman H. P. (2004). Diagnostic CT scans: Assessment of patient, physician, and radiologist awareness of radiation dose and possible risk. Radiology 231, 393–398.

Leeman R. F., Fischler C., Rozin P. (2011). Medical doctors’ attributes and beliefs about diet and health are more like those of their lay countrymen (France, Germany, Italy, UK, and U.S.A) than those of doctors in other countries. Appetite 56, 558–563.

Leibniz G. W. (1951). The horizon of human doctrine. In P. P. Wiener (Ed.). Selections (p. 73–77). New York: Scribner’s Sons. (Original work published 1690.)

Lewis M. (2010). The big short. New York: Norton.

Lin E. C. (2010). Radiation risk from medical imaging. Mayo Clinic Proceedings 85, 142–146.

Liu Y., Hu F., Li D. (2011). Does physical activity reduce the risk of prostate cancer? European Urology 60, 1029–1044.

Longnecker M. P., Newcomb P. A., Mittendorf R., Greenberg E. R., Clapp R. W., Bogdan G. F., et al. (1995). Risk of breast cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol consumption. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 87, 923–929.

Luchins E. H., Luchins A. S. (1979). Introduction to the Einstein– ertheimer correspondence. Methodology and Science 12, 165–202.

MacDonald K. L., Jackson J. B., Bowman R. J., Polesky H. F., Rhame F. S., Balfour H. H., et al. (1989). Performance characteristics of serologic tests for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV‑1) antibody among Minnesota blood donors. Public health and clinical implications. Annals of Internal Medicine 110, 617–621.

Maidique M. (2012). The leader’s toolbox: A deconstruction of high-stakes CEO decision making. Poster presentation at the meeting of the Society of Judgment and Decision making, Seattle. Retrieved from onlineappsdev.fiu.edu/lead/news/article/38.

Makridakis S., Hogarth R. M., Gaba A. (2009). Forecasting and uncertainty in theeconomic and business world. International Journal of Forecasting 25, 794–812.

Malkiel B. G. (2007). A random walk down Wall Street. New York: Norton.

Mandelbrot B., Taleb N. N. (2005, July 11). How finance gurus get risk all wrong. Fortune 99–100.

Martignon L., Vitouch O., Takezawa M., Forster M. R. (2011). Naive and yet enlightened: From natural frequencies to fast and frugal trees. In G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, and T. Pachur (Eds.), Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior (p. 134–150). New York: Oxford University Press.

McCollough C. H. (2011). Defending the use of medical imaging. Health Physics 100, 318–321.

McManus I. C., Richards P., Winder B. C., Sproston K. A. (1998). Clinical experience, performance in final examinations, and learning style in medical students: Prospective study. British Medical Journal 316, 345–350.

Mill J. S. (1869). On liberty. London: Longman, Roberts and Green.

Miller G. (2000). The mating mind: How sexual choice shaped the evolution of human nature. London: William Heinemann.

Mintzberg H. (2009). Managing. San Francisco: Berrett-Koeler.

Monti M., Martignon L., Pelligra V., Gugliemetti C. ( 2012). The insurance by my side: Better risk assessment for smarter insurance decisions (CAREFIN Working Paper No. 3/2011). Milan: Universitа Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.

Mooi W. J., Peeper D. S. (2006). Oncogene-induced cell senescence – Halting on the road to cancer. New England Journal of Medicine 355, 1037–1046.

Multmeier J. (2012). Representations facilitate Bayesian reasoning: Computational facilitation and ecological design revisited (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Free University: Berlin.

Munro E. (2004). A simpler way to understand the results of risk assessment instruments. Children and Youth Services Review 25, 873–883.

Muris, P. Merckelbach H., Meesters C., Van Lier P. (1997). What do children fear most often? Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry 28, 263–267.

Nass-Griegoleit I., Schultz-Zehden B., Klusendick M., Diener J., Schulte, H. (2009). Studie belegt hohe Akzeptanz des Mammographie-Screenings bei Frauen: Ergebnisse der ersten repräsentativen Studie in Deutschland. Frauenarzt 50, 494–501.

Neuberg S. L., Newsom J. T. (1993). Personal need for structure: Individual differences in the desire for simple structure. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 65, 113–131.

Nida-Rümelin J. 2011. Die Optimierungsfalle. Munich: Irisiana.

Nisbett R. E. (2003). The geography of thought: How Asians and Westerners think differently… and why. New York: Free Press.

Nisbett R. E. (2009). Intelligence and how to get it. New York: Norton.

Nyström L. (2002). Long-term effects of mammography screening: Updated overview of the Swedish randomized trials. Lancet 359, 909–919.

Öhman A., Mineka S. (2001). Fears, phobias, and preparedness: Toward an evolved module of fear and fear learning. Psychological Review 108, 483–522.

Ophir E., Nass C., Wagner A. D. (2009). Cognitive control in media multitaskers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 15583–15587.

Orpana H. M, Berthelot J. M., Kaplan M. S., Freny D. H., McFarland B., Ross N. A. (2008). BMI and mortality: Results from a national longitudinal study of Canadian adults. Obesity 18, 214–218.

Orrell D. (2010). Economyths. London: Icon Books.

Ortmann A., Gigerenzer G., Borges B., Goldstein D. G. (2008). The recognition heuristic: A fast and frugal way to investment choice? In C. R. Plott and V. L. Smith (Eds.), Handbook of experimental economics results: Vol. 1. P. 993–1003. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Paulos J. A. (1988). Innumeracy: Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences. New York: Vintage Books.

Payer L. (1996). Medicine and culture. New York: Holt.

Peto J. (2001). Cancer epidemiology in the last century and the next decade. Nature 411, 390–395.

Piatelli-Palmarini M. (1991). Probability blindness: Neither rational nor capricious. Bostonia, March/April, 28–35.

Piatelli-Palmarini M. (1994). Inevitable illusions: How mistakes of reason rule our minds. New York: Wiley.

Picano E., Matucci-Cerinic M. (2011). Unnecessary radiation exposure from medical imaging in the rheumatology patient. Rheumatology 50, 1537–1539.

Polya G. (1954). Mathematics and plausible reasoning (Vol. 1). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Posner R. A. (2009). A failure of capitalism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Proctor R. N. (2012). The history of the discovery of the cigarette – lung cancer link: Evidentiary traditions, corporate denial, global toll. Tobacco Control 21, 87–91.

Pronovost P., Needham D., Berenholtz S., Sinopoli D., Chu H., Cosgrove S., et al. (2006). An intervention to decrease catheter– related bloodstream infections in the ICU. New England Journal of Medicine 355, 2725–2732.